This week has been a wild ride for U.S. gamers, starting with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, only to be followed by widespread disappointment over its $450 price tag and the $80 cost for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster didn't stop there; this morning, Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden and sweeping tariffs on global trade.
We've previously covered the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential effects of these new tariffs on the gaming industry. Now, the burning question on everyone's mind is: What will Nintendo do? Will the price of the Nintendo Switch 2 increase when pre-orders finally open?
Typically, when faced with questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on data and evidence. This week alone, I've written two such pieces. However, this time, every analyst I spoke to was stumped by the current situation. Some offered guesses about whether Nintendo would raise prices, but all emphasized the unprecedented nature of these events, making any prediction highly uncertain.
With that in mind, here's a summary of what the analysts had to say:
Sky-High Switch
Analysts were divided on the potential for price increases. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices post-announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders has changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo will run simulations and likely announce price hikes for the system, games, and accessories. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't," he remarked. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve tariff issues before setting prices.
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment of unpredictability but leaned towards expecting price increases across the gaming industry, including Nintendo's products. He noted that the tariffs were much higher than anticipated, forcing businesses to reevaluate their pricing strategies. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," Piscatella stated, highlighting the potential for the U.S. to join regions with historically higher game prices due to these tariffs.
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, also predicts an increase in hardware prices but believes software might be less affected due to the growing dominance of digital distribution. He suggested that if a significant tariff increase were introduced, companies like Nintendo would likely pass the cost onto consumers rather than absorbing it themselves.
Holding the Line
On the other side, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid a price increase. He argues that the $449.99 price point already accounts for potential tariff volatility. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," he explained. However, he acknowledged the unpredictability of tariff decisions could force Nintendo to reassess if the trade situation worsens.
Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo risks consumer backlash if it raises prices further. He suggests the company will hope for a resolution to the tariff issue in the coming weeks. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now," he said, noting that any price change could impact the brand and consumer perception at launch.
Living in Unhinged Times
Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He pointed to Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in some markets as a way to encourage digital purchases. Elliott painted a grim picture of the broader impact on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He emphasized that shifting manufacturing to avoid tariffs isn't logistically feasible and criticized the tariffs for harming consumers and the economy during a cost-of-living crisis.
Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery
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Elliott concluded by critiquing the tariffs for going against core economic principles of comparative advantage, which he believes will lead to a weaker, poorer nation rather than the promised stronger, richer one. The current situation, he argues, reflects "unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)."
